
Invitation to the Abyss





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In normal dungeons, rare monsters have approximately a 2-5% drop rate based on player experience. The rate may be slightly higher for harder difficulty tiers. For end game bosses, the estimated drop chance per difficulty is: Mythical 100%, Legend 100% ( 40% If a Mythical Dungeon is available ), Master ~40%, Expert ~5%, Adept ~2%. |
Probability of mermaid drop (applicable to any other 2% drops)
1. Assuming a regular drop rate is 2%.
So, on Monday and Thursday, it’s 3% due to x1.5 boost. In other words, probability of not getting a mermaid drop is 97% (p=0.97).
Assuming independent, “probability of not dropping (x)” after n kills of mermaid is 0.97 x 0.97 x 0.97 x … = 0.97^n (x=0.97^n).
2. For x < 0.5, n > 22.7
So, if you kill at least 23 times, you will have more than 50% chance of dropping. And, since there are two mermaids in one round of dungeon (floor 6 and 7), you need to run this one 12 times to get ~50% chance.
3. For x < 0.1, n > 75.6 and for x < 0.05, n > 98.3
In the same way, if you run it 38 times (76 kills), you will get one mermaid with 90% probability. And 50 runs will bring you to 95%.
4. I got one after around 20~22 runs. So, it goes 40+ kills. My luck wasn't good but not that bad either. For n =40, x is around 0.3 (x=0.97^40). So, I belong to the bottom 30% of people.